Predicting the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in USA

Table 1 Numbers of reported COVID-19 cases and the corresponding numbers of deaths for March 2020 in the U.S. Here IGR represents the infection growth rate, DGR represents death growth rate, and β represents the infection density measured in (num/reported cases)

March	No. of Reported Cases	Difference in the No. of Cases	IGR	No. of Deaths	Difference in the No. of Deaths	DGR	Entropy of IGR & DGR (bits)	Infection Density (β)	R₀
1	75	7	0.1	1	0	0	0.12	2.28e-7	0.985
2	100	25	0.33	6	5	5	-11.2	3.04e-7	0.936
3	124	24	0.24	9	3	0.5	0.79	3.76e-7	0.928
4	158	34	0.27	11	2	0.22	0.65	4.80e-7	0.929
5	221	63	0.4	12	1	0.09	0.59	6.71e-7	0.945
6	319	98	0.44	15	3	0.25	0.75	9.68e-7	0.953
7	435	116	0.36	19	4	0.27	0.78	1.32e-6	0.957
8	541	106	0.24	22	3	0.16	0.51	1.64e-6	0.961
9	704	163	0.3	26	4	0.18	0.55	2.14e-6	0.962
10	994	290	0.41	30	4	0.15	0.67	3.02e-6	0.969
11	1,301	307	0.31	38	8	0.27	0.68	3.95e-6	0.971
12	1,630	329	0.25	41	3	0.08	0.41	4.95e-6	0.974
13	2,183	553	0.34	48	7	0.17	0.61	6.63e-6	0.977
14	2,770	587	0.27	57	9	0.19	0.56	8.41e-6	0.979
15	3,613	843	0.3	69	12	0.21	0.64	1.09e-5	0.987
16	4,596	983	0.27	87	18	0.26	0.71	1.39e-5	0.985
17	6,344	1,748	0.38	110	23	0.26	0.78	1.93e-5	0.980
18	9,197	2,853	0.45	150	40	0.36	0.90	2.79e-5	0.984
19	13,779	4,582	0.5	206	56	0.37	0.93	4.18e-5	0.986
20	19,367	5,588	0.41	255	49	0.24	0.74	5.88e-5	0.987
21	24,192	4,825	0.25	301	46	0.18	0.50	7.34e-5	0.988
22	33,592	9,400	0.39	414	113	0.38	0.83	1.02e-4	0.987
23	43,781	10,189	0.3	555	141	0.34	0.73	1.33e-4	0.986
24	54,856	11,075	0.25	780	225	0.41	0.73	1.67e-4	0.983
25	68,211	13,355	0.24	1027	247	0.32	0.69	2.07e-4	0.985
26	85,435	17,224	0.25	1295	268	0.26	0.64	2.59e-4	0.986
27	104,126	18,691	0.22	1695	400	0.31	0.63	3.16e-4	0.984
28	123,578	19,452	0.19	2220	525	0.31	0.54	3.75e-4	0.982
29	143,491	19,913	0.16	2583	363	0.16	0.44	4.36e-4	0.981
30	163,788	20,297	0.14	3141	558	0.26	0.59	4.97e-4	0.981
31	188,530 (N_ti)	24,742	0.15	4053 (N_td)	912	0.29	0.56	5.72e-4	0.978
			\(\sum = 9.11\)			\(\sum =12.45\)	\(\sum =8.05\)

ISSN: 1744-8603