Table 2 Time-to-event analysis (marginal risk set model) predicting implementation of international travel restrictions

KOF Globalization Index

1.08 (0.0739)

1.17^† (0.0958)

1.76^** (0.363)

1.80^* (0.535)

Neighbor restriction adoption

1.30^* (0.141)

1.43^*** (0.146)

1.45^*** (0.158)

Neighbor COVID-19 case (7-day total, log)

1.09^** (0.0312)

1.15^*** (0.0429)

1.15^*** (0.0438)

Domestic COVID-19 case (7-day total, log)

1.02 (0.0426)

1.02 (0.0470)

1.02 (0.0493)

Less restrictive travel policy adopted

3.28^*** (0.577)

3.11^*** (0.582)

3.14^*** (0.601)

Weekends

0.49^* (0.172)

0.39^** (0.133)

0.39^** (0.134)

Government Effectiveness (WGI)

0.83 (0.241)

0.83 (0.245)

Electoral democracy index

1.05 (0.109)

1.04 (0.111)

GDP per capita (log)

1.10 (0.193)

1.08 (0.196)

Unemployment (%)

1.04^** (0.0152)

1.04^** (0.0154)

GINI index

0.99 (0.0104)

0.99 (0.0106)

Hospital beds (per 1 k people)

1.10^* (0.0399)

1.09^* (0.0403)

Population ages 65+ (%)

0.93^** (0.0216)

0.94^** (0.0219)

Urban population (%)

1.00 (0.00470)

1.00 (0.00490)

Population density (log)

0.99 (0.0556)

0.99 (0.0563)

MERS or SARS experience

0.78 (0.269)

0.78 (0.270)

 Africa

0.94 (0.305)

0.95 (0.316)

 Asia

1.36 (0.407)

1.38 (0.421)

 Central America

0.52 (0.235)

0.54 (0.243)

 Europe

(ref.)

(ref.)

 North America

1.00 (0.481)

0.99 (0.482)

 Oceania

2.32^** (0.737)

2.27^* (0.726)

 South America

1.35 (0.448)

1.40 (0.462)

KOF*Neighbor restriction adoption

0.93 (0.0720)

KOF*Neighbor COVID-19 case (7-day total, log)

1.02 (0.0312)

Num. obs.

55,163

45,484

35,418

35,418

Num. countries

173

158

121

121

Num. failures

655

594

455

455

Pseudo R²

0.001

0.037

0.068

0.068

Log likelihood

− 2140.460

− 1813.963

− 1227.150

− 1226.585