Table 2 Summary table of ex-ante studies

Chaudhuri, Goldberg, & Gia [16]

To investigate the impacts of pharmaceutical patents for quinolones on prices and welfare in India

Two stage budgeting framework.

Outcomes: medicine prices, consumer and social welfare.

Comparison groups: sub-segments of systemic anti-bacterials medicine prices before and after implementing stronger patent laws.

Country: India,

Medicines: quinolone sub-segment of anti-infectives.

Sample: 300 largest firms, representing roughly 90% of domestic retail sales.

Range: January 1999 to December 2000.

Dutta [2]

To simulate the changes in consumer surplus, profits, market prices, and market quantities that would result from patent enforcement.

Structural model of demand, supply and entry.

Outcomes: medicine prices, consumer and social welfare.

Comparison groups: all pharmaceutical product prices before and after implementing stronger patent laws.

Country: India,

Medicines: All pharmaceutical products sold in India.

Sample: The sample covers approximately 90% of all pharmaceutical sales in India;

Range: 2001 to 2003.

Akaleephan et al [17].

To quantify the impact of TRIPs-plus provisions, especially the extension of market exclusivity of innovative medicines, in the proposed Thailand-USA FTA on medicine expense and medicine accessibility.

Simulation framework.

Outcome variable: cost savings

Comparison groups: generic medicines and innovative medicines under 10 years data exclusivity.

Country: Thailand; Medicines: 1136 International Non-proprietary Name (INN) of imported medicines.

Sample: 74 items out of 1136 INN; Range: 2000–2003

Azam [18]

To analyze the effects of TRIPS compliance on the prices, affordability and accessibility of pharmaceuticals in Bangladesh.

Use of different methods to analyze the different research questions posed in the paper: (a) doctrinal research for regulatory effects of TRIPS on pharmaceutical industry, (b) surveys, (c) case studies and interviews to analyze the expectation and perception regarding price, availability, affordability, etc., by the different stakeholders.

Country: Bangladesh;

Medicines: All pharmaceutical products in Bangladesh.

Sample: 22 CEO interviews, top 20 medicines sales and top 10 medicines prices for time trend analysis.

Range: Interview is from 2008, sales from 2008 to 09, price data for 1981 and 1991–92, and retail price survey for 2008–09.

Chaves et al. [19]

To assess the impact of TRIPS-plus measures as outlined in Mercosur-EU FTA on the public health in Brazil, especially on the public procurement of medicines.

Intellectual Property Rights Impact Aggregate (IPRIA) Model

Outcome variables: public expenditures, domestic sales of medicines in Brazil,

The current Brazilian market is used as a base for the calculations.

Country: Brazil.

Medicines: HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis C.

Range: ARV medicines if from 2008 to 2015, Hepatitis C medicines is from 2006 to 2016.

Kessomboon et al. [20]

To measure the effects of US-Thai FTA on the access to medicines.

Model of Impact of Changes in Intellectual Property Rights (MICIPR) developed by Joan Rovira and jointly produced by the World Health Organization and the Pan- American Health Organization (WHO/ PAHO Region)

Outcome variables:

Different scenarios of patent extension and data exclusivity periods under the TRIPS-plus agreement.

Country: Thailand.

Medicines: all active ingredients.

Range of projection is from 1992 to 2042,