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Table 6 Conflating Industry-Specific and Economy-Wide Effects

From: Corporations’ use and misuse of evidence to influence health policy: a case study of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation

A1) Text from Oxford Economics (2016) on Jobs [58]
“The impact of the SSB tax on employment in spaza stores is based on the revenue impact of the tax estimated for local and traditional stores. This suggests that revenue from soft drinks sales could fall by around 22% in spaza stores due to the SSB tax. On that basis, soft drinks sales could support between 13,400 and 23,500 fewer jobs in spaza stores following the tax, depending on whether jobs are estimated based on soft drinks’ share of revenue or margins.”
A2) Text from Oxford Economics (2016) on Public Revenue Generation [58]
“We estimate that this reduction in economic activity could reduce the industry’s contribution to tax revenues by R3.1 billion, including VAT due to lower sales volumes.”
A3) Text from Oxford Economics (2016) on GDP [58]
“Once the multiplier impacts are considered, the contribution of the core soft drinks industry to South Africa GDP could decline by R14 billion.”
B1) Text from BEVSA (2016) on Job Losses [72]
“The report from Oxford Economics (see Economic impact methodology sidebar) estimates that the proposed SSB tax could result in the loss of 62,000–72,000 existing jobs (3400 direct, 25,200 upstream, and 15,400 induced job losses; combined with 19,000–29,000 downstream job losses). The industry estimates that this will prevent the creation of 18,000–28,000 planned new jobs over the next three years. The tax could force the closure of 8000–13,000 small retail outlets and spaza shops … ..Standard approaches put the social cost of the increase in mortality, due to the job losses caused by the SSB tax, at more than R1 billion. This is in addition to the other social effects of unemployment, such as increased violent crime.”
B2) Text from BEVSA (2016) on Public Revenue Generation [72]
“The report by Oxford Economics estimates that job losses and lower industry profits could reduce Government revenues from its existing taxes by at least R3.1 billion per annum. The Government could see personal income taxes fall by R1.3 billion, corporate income taxes fall by R1.1 billion, and VAT reduced by R0.8 billion. In addition, the tax would, through its impact on unemployment, result in increased UIF payments of approximately R0.7 billion, as well as additional (unquantified) costs to the fiscus from secondary socio-economic effects of unemployment. As a result, the net impact on the fiscus from the SSB tax could be 50% lower than expectations.”
B3) Text from BEVSA (2016) on GDP [72]
“Using the least severe set of assumptions, the effects described above could reduce South Africa’s GDP by R14 billion (R3.5 billion direct, R6.7 billion indirect, and R3.8 billion induced GDP contribution).”