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Table 4 Negative binomial regression testing the relationship between Islamist insurgency and polio (3 year mean), 2003–2014

From: Islamist insurgency and the war against polio: a cross-national analysis of the political determinants of polio

  15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
  2003–5 2004–6 2005–7 2006–8 2007–9 2008–10 2009–11 2010–12 2011–13 2012–14
Islamist insurgency .194* (.136) .218 (.197) .305 (.226) 1.596 (1.130) 1.156 (.586) .335 (.271) .183 (.203) 49.313*** (50.731) 10.359** (8.454) 27.889*** (17.521)
Non-Islamist insurgency .601 (635) 1.291 (1.429) .392 (.289) 2.867* (1.114) 4.895* (3.073) .436 (.440) .430 (.512) 2.634 (1.522) 1.058 (.732) .659 (.754)
GDP per capita (000) .856 (.150) .949 (.039) .918 (.049) .990 (.026) .311** (.121) .927* (.061) .807 (.106) .878 (.062) .730* (.113) .582* (.112)
Total population (log) 4.730*** (2.001) 3.229* (1.544) 4.066*** (1.619) 1.733 (.594) 2.478*** (.619) 1.936** (.402) 1.486* (.265) 2.065** (.446) 2.227* (.686) 2.589*** (.693)
Infant mortality (per 1000) 1.057*** (.016) 1.049** (.017) 1.043* (.019) 1.036* (.015) 1.059*** (.013) 1.042*** (.008) 1.072*** (.019) 1.103*** (.024) 1.044** (.017) 1.026§ (.025)
Rural population % 1.052 (.030) 1.058* (.028) 1.061* (.030) 1.034** (.011) .975 (.021) 1.055 (.031) .990 (.028) .938* (.159) .960 (.021) .969 (.025)
Polio cases in previous year (log) .885 (.296) 1.025 (.234) 1.036 (.183) 2.100*** (.381) 1.332 (.211) 1.417* (.246) 1.450 (.373) .743* (.159) 2.116*** (.387) 1.417 (.282)
Observations 182 182 182 182 182 183 183 183 183 183
  1. We report incidence rate ratios. Standard errors are in parentheses. Constants are calculated but not reported
  2. * p < .05 (5 %), ** p < .01 (1 %), *** p < .001 (0.1 %), § p = .05 (5 %)