Table 4 Negative binomial regression testing the relationship between Islamist insurgency and polio (3 year mean), 2003–2014

2003–5

2004–6

2005–7

2006–8

2007–9

2008–10

2009–11

2010–12

2011–13

2012–14

Islamist insurgency

.194^* (.136)

.218 (.197)

.305 (.226)

1.596 (1.130)

1.156 (.586)

.335 (.271)

.183 (.203)

49.313^*** (50.731)

10.359^** (8.454)

27.889^*** (17.521)

Non-Islamist insurgency

.601 (635)

1.291 (1.429)

.392 (.289)

2.867^* (1.114)

4.895^* (3.073)

.436 (.440)

.430 (.512)

2.634 (1.522)

1.058 (.732)

.659 (.754)

GDP per capita (000)

.856 (.150)

.949 (.039)

.918 (.049)

.990 (.026)

.311^** (.121)

.927^* (.061)

.807 (.106)

.878 (.062)

.730^* (.113)

.582^* (.112)

Total population (log)

4.730^*** (2.001)

3.229^* (1.544)

4.066^*** (1.619)

1.733 (.594)

2.478^*** (.619)

1.936^** (.402)

1.486^* (.265)

2.065^** (.446)

2.227^* (.686)

2.589^*** (.693)

Infant mortality (per 1000)

1.057^*** (.016)

1.049^** (.017)

1.043^* (.019)

1.036^* (.015)

1.059^*** (.013)

1.042^*** (.008)

1.072^*** (.019)

1.103^*** (.024)

1.044^** (.017)

1.026§ (.025)

Rural population %

1.052 (.030)

1.058^* (.028)

1.061^* (.030)

1.034^** (.011)

.975 (.021)

1.055 (.031)

.990 (.028)

.938^* (.159)

.960 (.021)

.969 (.025)

Polio cases in previous year (log)

.885 (.296)

1.025 (.234)

1.036 (.183)

2.100^*** (.381)

1.332 (.211)

1.417^* (.246)

1.450 (.373)

.743^* (.159)

2.116^*** (.387)

1.417 (.282)

Observations

182

182

182

182

182

183

183

183

183

183