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Table 3 Negative binomial regression testing the relationship between Islamist insurgency in 2012 and polio cases in 2012–14 (3-year mean)

From: Islamist insurgency and the war against polio: a cross-national analysis of the political determinants of polio

  8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Islamist insurgency 110.078*** (96.727)   126.742*** (112.982)   29.695*** (18.510)   27.889*** (17.521)
Insurgency   48.686*** (41.103)     12.503*** (7.829)  
Non-Islamist insurgency   2.766 (2.966)     .659 (.754)
GDP per capita (000)     .394* (.162) .588* (.119) 523*** (095) .582* (.112)
Total population (log)     3.329*** (1.014) 2.528** (.727) 2.572** (795) 2.589*** (.693)
Infant Mortality Rate     1.045 (.027) 1.026 (.014) 1.032 (.018) 1.026§ (.025)
Rural population %     .920* (.032) .967 (.024) .935* (.025) .969 (.025)
Previous polio 2.525*** (.614) 2.573*** (.557) 2.580*** (.659) 1.343 (.293) 1.445 (.281) 1.486* (.269) 1.417 (.282)
Observations 192 192 192 183 183 183 183
  1. We report incidence rate ratios. Standard errors are in parentheses. Constants are calculated but not reported
  2. * p < .05 (5 %), ** p < .01 (1 %), *** p < .001 (0.1 %), §p = .05 (5 %)