Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 3 Recessionary (1995–2010) and pre-recession fiscal multipliers (1995–2007), by type of government spending

From: Does investment in the health sector promote or inhibit economic growth?

  Increase in GDP (PPP, per capita, real)
Covariates Estimated multiplier 1995-2010 Recession interaction Estimated recession multiplier
  (1) (2) (3)
Total Government Spending 1.28 −0.15 1.13
(0.78 to 1.77) (−0.084 to −0.21) (0.66 to 1.61)
Defence −5.69 −1.71 −7.40
(−15.77 to 4.39) (−6.16 to 2.74) (−18.12 to 3.32)
Community −2.29 −5.99 −8.29
(−4.84 to 0.25) (−1.34 to −10.64) (−13.45 to −3.12)
Economic Affairs 0.45 −1.17 −0.72
(−0.35 to 1.24) (−1.99 to −0.35) (−1.09 to −0.35)
General Public Services 1.57 −0.45 1.12
(−0.26 to 3.40) (−1.17 to 0.28) (−0.75 to 3.00)
Social Protection 3.04 −0.33 2.71
(2.05 to 4.03) (−0.56 to −0.11) (1.81 to 3.60)
Health 4.92 −1.31 3.61
(2.92 to 6.93) (−1.68 to −0.94) (1.60 to 5.62)
Culture & Recreation 14.12 −2.38 11.83
(2.16 to 26.26) (−0.67 to −4.10) (−0.92 to 24.58)
Education 9.37 −1.44 7.92
(4.40 to 14.34) (−2.08 to −0.80) (3.19 to 12.66)
Environment 9.49 −6.30 3.18
  (−5.03 to 24.00) (−8.93 to −3.68) (−10.60 to 16.97)
  1. Notes: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence intervals. GDP and all forms of government spending are adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity. Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered by country to reflect non-independence of sampling Columns 1–2 report coefficients from equation 2. Column 3 reports the linear combination of columns 1 and 2. All models control for between-country variation.