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Table 3 Recessionary (1995–2010) and pre-recession fiscal multipliers (1995–2007), by type of government spending

From: Does investment in the health sector promote or inhibit economic growth?

 

Increase in GDP (PPP, per capita, real)

Covariates

Estimated multiplier 1995-2010

Recession interaction

Estimated recession multiplier

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

Total Government Spending

1.28

−0.15

1.13

(0.78 to 1.77)

(−0.084 to −0.21)

(0.66 to 1.61)

Defence

−5.69

−1.71

−7.40

(−15.77 to 4.39)

(−6.16 to 2.74)

(−18.12 to 3.32)

Community

−2.29

−5.99

−8.29

(−4.84 to 0.25)

(−1.34 to −10.64)

(−13.45 to −3.12)

Economic Affairs

0.45

−1.17

−0.72

(−0.35 to 1.24)

(−1.99 to −0.35)

(−1.09 to −0.35)

General Public Services

1.57

−0.45

1.12

(−0.26 to 3.40)

(−1.17 to 0.28)

(−0.75 to 3.00)

Social Protection

3.04

−0.33

2.71

(2.05 to 4.03)

(−0.56 to −0.11)

(1.81 to 3.60)

Health

4.92

−1.31

3.61

(2.92 to 6.93)

(−1.68 to −0.94)

(1.60 to 5.62)

Culture & Recreation

14.12

−2.38

11.83

(2.16 to 26.26)

(−0.67 to −4.10)

(−0.92 to 24.58)

Education

9.37

−1.44

7.92

(4.40 to 14.34)

(−2.08 to −0.80)

(3.19 to 12.66)

Environment

9.49

−6.30

3.18

 

(−5.03 to 24.00)

(−8.93 to −3.68)

(−10.60 to 16.97)

  1. Notes: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence intervals. GDP and all forms of government spending are adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity. Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered by country to reflect non-independence of sampling Columns 1–2 report coefficients from equation 2. Column 3 reports the linear combination of columns 1 and 2. All models control for between-country variation.